Chasing Ice with the All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group

Watching the film of a self-confessed reformed climate skeptic with members of parliament and Lords isn’t how I usually spend my Tuesday morning, but it was what I found myself doing last Tuesday. The occasion for this unlikely meeting was a special screening of photographer James Balog’s film Chasing Ice for the All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group (APPCCG), of which the Cabot Institute is a member. The film, which documents the work of the photographer’s Extreme Ice Survey, follows James and his team on a journey to record the retreat of 13 glaciers across the globe continuously over a two year period. 

I won’t spoil the film too much (and strongly encourage you to see it if you can) but suffice to say placing 28 cameras at locations across the globe in some of the most difficult terrains and extremes of temperature is a challenge for both the men and technology involved. The aim to take one photo every hour of daylight for two years solid was massively ambitious, but worth the effort and the pain, as the result is a spectacular demonstration of how our hydrocarbon based economy is changing the face of the planet.

“What the public need […] is something spectacular that grabs people in the gut”
James Balog

James’s desire was to capture what is perhaps the most visually compelling effect of climate change. Retreating glaciers are a clear indication of the effects of rising global temperatures and one (despite the attempts by some to highlight the minority which are advancing) which is hard to ignore. Of course the glaciers highlighted in the film are only a small proportion of global land ice (which has the power to raise sea level) but can be seen as an important “canary in the coal mine” demonstrating the processes which are happening in the really large ice sheets too. Over the last twenty years, mass loss of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are estimated to have contributed 0.59 ±0.20 mm yr -1 to global sea level rise (Shepard et al., 2012). While that may seem like a small number, the effects over the next century could be dramatic, especially as, if last year’s unprecedented Greenland melt are anything to go by (
Tedesco et al., 2012), this rate could be accelerating.

“If you had an abscess in your tooth, would you go to dentist after dentist until one told you not to pull it out?”
James Balog
 

Before the screening there was an introduction to the film by Chris Shearlock, Sustainable Development Manager at The Co-operative Group who explained the Co-op’s involvement in the film, and their outlook on sustainable and ethical investment. The Co-op has invested £1billion in renewable energy, and he estimated that they have refused £300 million of investment opportunities in hydrocarbon extraction, and so when following the film, the questioning turned to exploitation of the soon-to-be summer sea ice free arctic the voice of the Co-operative was clear – that they will not be investing in hydrocarbon extraction. That question was dealt with very differently by Chris Barton, Head of International & Domestic Energy Security at the DECC who put forward the UK government’s current position that whilst we should reduce demand, in order to maintain cheap oil and gas for UK consumers “sensible” and regulated extraction in the arctic should be a priority for UK plc. What to do with the resulting CO2 emissions in order to hit the < 2 °C target? Well in Chris Barton’s mind carbon capture and storage will come to the rescue.

The debate moved to whether, as we are not an Arctic state, we can do anything about the regulation of commercial activity in a basin which is a combination of the territorial water of eight nation states, and open ocean controlled under the international law of the sea. The DECC view seemed to be that it is largely none of our business and out of our control, but interestingly Jane Rumble, Head of Polar Regions Unit at the FCO, had a different perspective. She suggested that we should be (and can be) working constructively through the Arctic Council, towards a similar regulatory framework to that which controls the other end of the Earth via the Antarctic Treaty, and by influencing Canada (one of the eight bordering nation states) through the commonwealth. Colin Manson, Director of Manson Oceanographic Consultancy and member of the IMO Polar Code working group spoke of the frustration of many in the shipping industry that talks on the Polar Code had stalled and encouraged UK intervention as a broker. He also pointed that one little talked about impacts of the opening up of the Northern Passage would be dramatic reductions in the time and fuel needed for bulk cargo shipping from the far east to Europe. With the representative routing of Shanghai – Rotterdam dropping to 5 weeks, vs the current 8 week route via the Indian Ocean. Colin, along I think with many in the audience, hoped thoughtful regulation and consideration of the impacts of this increased shipping through the arctic would come before it was too late.

Julia Slingo OBE, Chief Scientist at the Met Office closed proceedings with an impassioned plea to take care with the interpretation of our current generation of climate models following questions from the audience, and highlighted the importance of sustained development of what are our best hopes for accurate and precise predictions of future climate change.

All in all it was a fascinating day, and I was grateful to be exposed to a beautiful film, as well as an insight into the minds of those at the policy end of climate change science.

“We think we need new oil and gas production whether people like it or not”
Chris Barton, Head of International & Domestic Energy Security, DECC

This blog is by Dr Marcus Badger (Chemistry) at the University of Bristol
. He writes about the APPCCG meeting held on 5 March 2013.
Marcus Badger

Cabot office yearly round up – 2012

This year has been a fantastic journey.  Philippa and myself (Amanda Woodman-Hardy) got our teeth into some great projects and events and met some amazing people and new friends along the way.

Here are our highlights of the year:

January

Neville Gabie, our new Artist in Residence, starts at the Cabot Institute and works on a project entitled ‘Common Room’.

February

Professor Jonathan Bamber presented at this year’s Guardian Open Weekend discussing the question ‘Is global warming melting the Himalayan glaciers?

In the wake of the Fukushima disaster, we publish our first think piece entitled “Implications for the UK nuclear industry of the events at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station, Japan”.  The report drew on our expertise in seismic hazards assessment at nuclear facilities, seismology, earthquake engineering, geohazards, probabilistic hazards and risk assessment, extreme events and extensive experience of working in Japan on relevant issues.

March

We publish another think piece called ‘2050: Sustainable oceans in a changing climate’.

We have a new short film about the Cabot Institute published online.  You can now watch the video on our homepage.

We launch a new interdisciplinary MSc in Climate Change Science and Policy.

April

John McNamara becomes a new Fellow of The Royal Society.

Katsu Goda receives the 2012 Charles F. Richter Early Career Award, given by the Seismological Society of America (SSA), for his research on probabilistic seismic hazard/risk analysis and catastrophic earthquake risk management.

Kathy Cashman, AXA Research Chair and Professor of Volcanology, is elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (AAAS) for helping to explain why volcanoes erupt the way they do.

Cabot Institute Manager Philippa Bayley helps Bristol reach the final three in bid to be named the greenest capital in Europe.

Willy Aspinall, Cabot Professor in Natural Hazards and Risk Science, receives the William Smith Medal, for excellence in contributions to applied geoscience.  Royal Society Research Fellow and Cabot member Dr Daniela Schmidt receives the Lyell Fund, awarded to outstanding early career scientists.

May

We met with the Disaster Prevention Research Institution (DPRI) in Kyoto, Japan.  We held a joint workshop called ‘Probabilistic Hazard Risk Assessment and Beyond’.  We will be hosting the DPRI in Bristol in January 2013 and we look forward to building our relationship further.

Kathy Cashman was awarded £500,000 by the AXA Research Fund to study ash cloud dangers.  http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cabot/news/2012/169.html .  We celebrated by holding a joint AXA/Cabot Volcanoes and Society event.

June

Marine biologist Steve Simpson held a stall at Big Green Week in Bristol city centre.  The idea was to promote sustainable fishing and sustainable fish choices to the general public.

A hideous video by the European Union makes an appearance on the internet prompting outcry from real scientists.  Our very own Tamsin Edwards and Ellie Cosgrave amongst others start to create a calendar in back lash to the patronising EU video to show what real female (and male) scientists do.  Get your calendar now for 2013! 

July

Lauren Gregoire and her team found out the cause of rapid sea level change in the past, which increases our understanding of the nature of ice sheets and climate change for the future. http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cabot/news/2012/184.html

Professor Paul Reid found that the rate of cloud droplet growth can be strongly dependent on the composition of the aerosol, which is really important for understanding trends in past global climate and predicting future climate change. Read more here. http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cabot/news/2012/183.html

Our volcanologists appear on the BBC’s Volcanoes series. Cabot scientists featured include Dr Jeremy Phillips and Dr Alison Rust (Earth Sciences), and Dr Adam Crewe (Civil Engineering) amongst others, and topics include Why Do Volcanoes Erupt? (Episode 1), Volcanic Hazards and Flows (Episode 2), Earthquakes and their Simulation (Episode 3), and Supervolcanoes (Episode 4).  Also prominently featured was the volcano field research of Professor Jon Blundy and his team (Earth Sciences). http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cabot/news/2012/181.html

Some of our researchers have also received almost a million pounds for a study into forecasting and coping with volcanic eruptions.  Read more about the projecthere.We have been holding our Cabot Summer School on risk and uncertainty in natural hazards http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cabot/events/2012/129.html .

August

Dr Steve Simpson, joins an expert panel to brief the world’s media on sustaining fish populations at the Coral Reef Symposium in Australia.

I complete an overhaul of the Cabot Institute website.

Three Cabot Institute researchers provide their own insights on the highly publicised news story about the extent of melting observed on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Jemma Wadham highlights potential methane reservoirs beneath Antarctica.

September

We start a Cabot Press Gang consisting of post grads and early career researchers who were interested in getting experience in communications.  Under the guidance of Nikki Temple (freelance science writer) and the UoB press team, the Cabot Press Gang started hunting down environmental stories across the faculties so we could publicise our Cabot researchers work.

Tamsin Edwards features on BBC Radio to explain the link between the jet stream and the UK’s wet summer.

Ed Hornibrook becomes co-I on a £700,000 grant from NERC to look into the contribution of trees to tropical wetland methane emissions.

October

We publish our first annual magazine.  The online magazine is read by 1000 people in the first couple of months.

Professor Katharine Cashman, AXA Research Chair, Volcanology Research Group, in the School of Earth Sciences was among 180 influential artists, scientists, scholars, authors and institutional leaders inducted into the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

November

Professor Kevin Anderson from the Tyndall Centre comes to Bristol for our Annual Lecture.  This incredibly popular lecture was streamed live for the first time by the University of Bristol and the video of event online has had almost 5000 views at time of print.  Watch again.Professor Paul Bates, Director of the Cabot Institute and Professor of hydrology at the University of Bristol, wins this year’s Lloyd’sScience of Risk Prize in the category of Natural Hazards for his work on floodmodelling.  He was also co-author of the winning entry for the prize’s other category, Climate Change.

A new approach for evaluating past climate sensitivity datahas been developed by Cabot Institute scientists Paul Valdes, Dan Lunt and Mark Siddall to help improve comparison with estimates of long-term climate projections developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Image by TP Martin
Some of our scientists help decipher complex genetic code of wheat to create new tools for breeders and researchers across the world.
We held a Great Environment Debate with local schools to teach them how human actions modify the Earth’s climate and the challenges that lie ahead.

Cabot member Aoife Grant sets up Europe’s first network of integrated greenhouse gas measurements in the UK and Ireland.We announce the winners of our Cabot Open Call with awards being given to the following projects:

December

Some Cabot researchers head off to Lake Ellsworth in Antarctica find out more about Earth’s past climate.

A £2 million project, led by Cabot Institute researchers aims to better assess uncertainty and risk of natural hazards.

We may only be a secretariat of two people but without the support from our wonderful Cabot Institute members we could have done none of this.  We want to give a big thank you to everyone who came to our events, supported our researchers, conducted inspirational research and embraced a new way of interdisciplinary working to help solve the world’s biggest environmental problems.   

We wish you all a merry Christmas and a very happy New Year.   
Here’s to a bigger, better and more exciting 2013! 

Cabot office weekly roundup – 7 December 2012

This week has seen a glut of news come from the Cabot Institute. 

1. £2M for risk management of natural hazards 
Natural hazards such as earthquakes, ash clouds, floods, droughts and storms can have a catastrophic impact on lives and economies around the world resulting in billions of dollars in financial losses. A new £2 million project, led by Cabot Institute researchers at the University of Bristol, aims to better assess uncertainty and risk of natural hazards.

2. Accurate flood forecasting gets closer 
Heavy rainfall and the problems of flooding in towns have never been far from peoples’ minds or the news headlines over the past few weeks. New research by Professor Paul Bates will help to accurately pinpoint which individual streets are most at risk from flooding during severe rainstorms.

3. Government investment announced for National Composites Centre
Chancellor George Osborne today announced an investment of £28m to enhance the capabilities and capacity of the National Composites Centre which has world-class expertise and industrial-scale facilities that are being used to develop the technologies which will result in more fuel efficient land, sea and air vehicles as well as, for example, the next generation of wind and marine renewable energy devices. 

4. British team embark on ambitious Antarctic challenge
In December 2012 a team of British scientists, engineers and support staff, led by Professor Martin Siegert of the University of Bristol, will drill through 3km of solid ice into subglacial Lake Ellsworth in Antarctica. Their mission – to search for life forms in the water and clues to past climate in the lake-bed sediments – is one of the most exciting and ambitious explorations of our time.

5. Health services need to become more sustainable say researchers 
Health services need to do more to tackle climate change and resource depletion if they are to cope with the soaring prevalence of chronic illness say the authors of a new book.

I’m going to leave you with the girls (and guys) in Psychology at the University of Bristol who have done a remake of the famous “Science: it’s a girl thing” video originally made by the European Union. This light hearted remake features some very lovely ladies doing what they do best…science and being real!

We have our Science Grrl calendar which we helped sponsor in order to help promote real women in science.  Looking forward to putting it up in the new year.  Get yours now!

‘Bleeting’ on about climate change

Blogging the tweets (‘bleeting’) received from our Annual Lecture with Kevin Anderson

By Amanda Woodman-Hardy

This week we held our Annual Lecture with special guest Kevin Anderson from the Tyndall Centre at the University of Manchester. As I was helping out at the event, I didn’t get to see all of it (I’ll be watching it online when the video is posted) so I thought instead I would share with you some of the tweets and comments received from members of the public who attended the event.

We handed out postcards on the night with two sides, one asking what had inspired you this evening and the other side asking what will you do as a result? We had a very diverse audience with people from government, charities and NGOs, education, health, and sustainability organisations. This lead to some very diverse responses. Some were interesting, relevant and empowering. Others were depressing, shocking or hopeless. This in itself shows the problems that we face in communicating climate change to people who are from different backgrounds, with different beliefs and different personal levels of optimism, pessimism and realism.

Kevin Anderson was quite blunt in explaining that if we keep doing what we’re doing and don’t make any changes to our lives now to make them more energy efficient and sustainable, then climate change will cause at least 4 – 6 degrees of warming with potentially horrendous consequences for the people and biodiversity of the world.

Some interesting tweets came through Twitter on the night and the days that followed, showing that the outcome of the event had stuck in people’s minds.

The negative tweets

“The fiction of climate science -in particular emission modelling is hard wired by policy paymasters.K. Anderson”

“Looking for good news that humans aren’t doomed, but not hopeful!”

“#cabot2012 The future is impossible.”

“well, #cabot2012 was extremely interesting, sobering and downright scary. My summary – don’t bank on your grandkids having a planet.”

“Looking for optimism but ending in pessimism…”

“Kevin Anderson blowing apart any notion of limiting global temp rise to 2C as a realistic goal. 4,5 or even 6 far more likely. #cabot2012”

The positive tweets

“Key questions @cabotinstitute … How can we frame the issue for people who would avert their attention? Including us? Lots on rule…”

Some ideas to reduce demand http://www.bristol247.com/2012/11/06/how-you-can-be-part-of-the-low-carbon-revolution-85245/

“What a fantastic #Cabot2012 lecture from Kevin Anderson this evening – many thanks to the @cabotinstitute – I AM FEELING INSPIRED FOR CHANGE”

“Eye opening talk from Kevin Anderson last night #cabot2012, time to face up to reality of climatechange”

“Well done #Cabot2012 for hosting Kevin Anderson’s challenging lecture today! His is a message we, as scientists, should be listening to.”

“Kevin Anderson: “There are lots of things we can do, both from the bottom-up and the top-down.” #Cabot2012”

“Strange that so many climate change scientists persist in flying to international conferences. Great talk from Kevin Anderson #cabot2012”

“Straight talking presentation about the reality of carbon and climate change last night from Kevin Anderson #cabot2012 http://ow.ly/f5DHC”

“#cabot2012 Kevin Anderson brilliant talk “all estimates in analysis are way below reality” 4degree future increase Global mean surface temp”

 

The remarks on the postcards were just as varied. What follows are the responses from a random selection of postcards filled in by attendees on the night.

What inspired you this evening?

“Driving certain cars on the market would reduce emissions by 40 -50%”.

“Why can’t we stop having babies?”

“You can’t trust very much of what you are told but there are true independent voices out there”

“The feisty nature of the audience”

“The fact that a climate scientist admitted that many numbers that projections and estimates are based on are incorrect”

“It was refreshing to see an academic so unequivocally calling out his colleagues for their hypocritical behaviour in talking about climate change but continuing to engage in high-emitting activities”

“Confirmation that we need to act”

“Kevin was willing and determined to be honest”

“That real change is possible through simple things such as stopping flying, walking and cycling to get around”

What will you do as a result?

“Won’t have children and accept that the human race is ****ed – we deserve it”

“I would like to see the Cabot Institute commit to the values it appears to espouse by reducing emissions from its events and research as much as possible – e.g. by not flying academics to climate change conferences”

“Keep trying to learn the facts and be vocal with others about what I learn”

“Talk to people who are not already converted”

“Spread the word and read up more about climate change”

“Support/lobby MP and continue to strive for greener low carbon lifestyle. Influence others.”

“Stay positive, be honest, change the economy”

“Try to stop flying. Try to shop more by bicycle rather than driving”.

 

It is refreshing to see a group of randomly selected respondents who want to make a change. The main message that came out of Kevin Anderson’s talk was to spread the word and educate others in the hope of reducing emissions in our everyday lives.

You can read all the responses from the event here

Did you go to the Kevin Anderson event? What do you think of everyone’s responses above? Is it what you expected? Is there something that hasn’t been said? Feel free to comment on this blog, we would love to hear your opinions.

 

Read more about Kevin’s work here

Interesting article from Ben Connor ‘The art of burying your head in the sand’in reference to Kevin Anderson’s talk.

Read Craig Comstock’s blog piece about the event in the Huffington Post.

Cabot office weekly roundup – 21 September 2012

A meeting of the Cabot Press Gang started off the week.  It’s good to know we will have some interesting new Cabot-related stories coming out from the faculties over the next couple weeks.

I have now posted the videos from the AXA Volcanoes and Society Research Day which was held back in May.  You can view videos on our brand new YouTube channel with videos of presentations by the amazing Kathy Cashman, Katsu Goda, Caroline Williams, Paul Valdes, Susanna Jenkins, Jonathan Rougier, and David Pyle.  I have also added the videos to the main Volcanoes and Society page on the website where you can also download the powerpoint presentations.

The magazine mock-ups came through from Dirty Design.  We have three different designs to choose from which has been extremely contentious!  I have taken the magazine to several different groups of people to gauge opinion.  The press gang, press office, geography admin office, myself and Philippa all liked a bold design.  The hydrology group, other members of geographical sciences and a couple PA’s like a less bold design.  I have therefore decided to make a compromise between the two most popular designs.  I’m really excited to see the finished article.

Today is the last day of Gemma Simpson, an administrator in Geographical Sciences.  I for one am very sorry to see her go as she has supported Cabot in a lot of ways over the last year especially with regards to finding rooms for meetings!  Very many thanks Gemma and good luck!

Cabot office weekly roundup – 13 September 2012

Don’t you hate it when you know something but you can’t say anything.  All I can say is we have a few AMAZING things up our sleeves which will be revealed in the coming weeks.  I can’t even hint at what it is…so stay tuned to our Twitter feed where you will hear our announcements first!

This week we have mainly been – busy!  Both Philippa and myself have been working hard to get the magazine ready for publication.  The boring things have been done, like sourcing hi-res images, establishing an editor for the magazine to ensure continuity and deciding on what paper to print it on (don’t worry we went for the most environmentally friendly option!).  We are quite excited to see the magazine, although it won’t be ready until October.  We will have an electronic copy put on Issuu and will share it with you as soon as we get our hands on the finished article.

Finally…did you know you can now read what we’re reading on Delicious.  Some really inspiring and interesting articles/webpages have been added so take a look.

Cabot office weekly roundup – 7 September 2012

Poor Neville Gabie, our Artist in Residence, has had a bad week with technology with his laptop and video camera breaking down.  Neville is currently recording and editing interviews of Cabot members for his project Common Room.  If you would like to get involved (Neville has a replacement camera now!), please contact cabot-enquiries@bristol.ac.uk or take a look at Neville’s web page.

We have been working on the first edition of our new annual magazine this week.  We met with Dirty Design who are designing the layout of the magazine.  There is a lot of work to do between now and getting it printed in October so the next few weeks will be pretty hectic in the Cabot Office.

On Tuesday we met with Dave Kilbey who is project manager in IT Services.  He has developed a new mobile app called Nature Tracker to record invasive species in the UK.   Check it out.

Our top Cabot news stories in the last week or so are: