power – Cabot Institute for the Environment blog

Climate, migration and conflict mix to create ‘deadly’ intense tropical storms like Chido

Posted on January 8, 2025 by amanda.woodman-hardy

Cyclone Chido was an “intense tropical cyclone”, equivalent to a category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic. It made landfall in Mayotte, a small island lying to the north-west of Madagascar on December 14, generating wind gusts approaching 155mph (250km/hr). Later on, it hit Mozambique, East Africa with the same ferocity.

This storm skirted north of Madagascar and affected the Comoros archipelago before making landfall in Mozambique. It is well within the range of what is expected for this part of the Indian Ocean. But this region has experienced an increase in the most intense tropical cyclones in recent years. This, alongside its occurrence so early in the season, can be linked to increases in ocean temperatures as a result of climate change.

News of the effects of tropical cyclone Chido in Mayotte, Mozambique and Malawi continues to emerge. Current estimates suggest 70% of Mayotte’s population have been affected, with over 50,000 homes in Mozambique partially or completely destroyed.

Ongoing conflict in Mozambique and undocumented migration to Mayotte will have played a key role in the number of deaths and the infrastructure damage.

Assessing how these cyclones characteristics are changing across southern Africa is part of the research we are involved in. Our team also studies how to build resilience to cyclones where conflict, displacement and migration magnify their effects.

A human-made disaster?

The risk that tropical cyclones pose to human life is exacerbated by socioeconomic issues. Migrants on Mayotte, many of whom made perilous journeys to escape conflict in countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, now make up more than half of the island’s population.

Precarious housing and the undocumented status of many residents reportedly made the disaster more deadly, as people feared evacuation would lead them to the police. On islands with poor infrastructure such as Mayotte, there is often simply nowhere safe to go. It takes many days for the power network and drinking water supply to be restored.

The situation is particularly complex in Mozambique. The ongoing conflict and terrorist violence, coupled with cyclones, including Kenneth in 2019, has caused repeated evacuations and worsening living conditions. Cabo Delgado and Nampula in the far north of Mozambique, the provinces most affected by both Chido and the conflict, rank among the poorest and most densely populated in the country due to limited education, scarce livelihood options and an influx of people displaced by violence.

As of June 2024, more than half a million people remained without permanent homes in the region, many living in displacement camps. That number is likely to rise significantly after Chido.

Compounding the crisis, Chido’s landfall so early in the cyclone season meant that the usual technical and financial preparations were not yet fully ramped up, with low stock levels delaying the timely delivery of aid. Unrest following elections in November hampered preparations further, cutting the flow of resources and personnel needed for anticipatory action and early response.

Tropical cyclones in a warmer world

Warmer sea surface temperatures not only provide more fuel for stronger storms, but may also expand the regions at risk of tropical cyclones.

The Indian Ocean is warming faster than the global average, and is experiencing a staggering increase in the proportion of storms reaching the intensity of Chido.

Climate simulations predict that storms will continue getting stronger as we further warm our world, and could even lead to an unprecedented landfall as far south as the Mozambican capital, Maputo.

Scientists carry out attribution studies to determine how climate change contributed to specific events. Scientists undertaking rapid attribution studies of Chido have found that the ocean surface temperatures along the path of the storm were 1.1°C warmer than they would have been without climate change. So, temperatures this warm were made more than 50 times more likely by climate change. Another study focusing on Chido itself concluded that the cyclone’s winds were 5% faster due to global heating caused by burning fossil fuels, enough to bump it from a category 3 to a category 4 storm.

Intense winds are not the only hazard. Scientists are confident that tropical cyclones will dump more rain as a result of climate change. A trend towards slower-moving storms has been observed, causing more of that rain to accumulate in a single location, resulting in floods.

Cyclone Freddy delivered a year’s worth of rain to southern Malawi in just four days in March 2023. Storm surges, exacerbated by sea level rise, also raise the scale of flooding, as in the devastating Cyclone Idai in March 2019. An increase in the number of storms that rapidly intensify, as Chido did before landfall in Mayotte has also been linked to climate change, which makes it harder to provide early warnings.

To improve resilience to future cyclones, conflict, migration and social dynamics must be considered alongside climate change, without this, displaced and migrant communities will continue to be the most affected by the risks that climate change poses.

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This blog is written by Liz Stephens, Professor of Climate Risks and Resilience, University of Reading; Cabot Institute for the Environment member Dan Green, PhD Candidate in African Climate Science, University of Bristol, and Luis Artur, Lecturer and Researcher of Disaster Risk Reduction, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Building up solar power in Africa

Posted on August 20, 2015April 13, 2023 by janet.crompton

It’s proving tough enough in the UK to increase the amount of renewable energy we use, and attempting this in Africa may seem like a pipe dream. However, six years ago, University of Bristol alumni Edward Matos (Engineering Design, 2009) and Oliver Kynaston (Physics, 2007), fresh faced out of their degrees, created a company to do just this.

Last month, I interviewed Oliver from his home in Tanzania and he gave me the low down on how it all happened.

It all started when Edward won £10K for his social enterprise idea in the 2009 Bristol New Enterprise Competition hosted by RED (Research and Enterprise Development) at the University of Bristol. The basic plan was to design and disseminate biodigesters amongst the rural poor of developing countries that would produce clean fuel for cooking and heating from livestock excrement; thereby avoiding the need to burn firewood in the home. Inhaling smoke in the home causes acute respiratory infections and in Africa alone, this causes more than 400,000 people, mostly children, to die every year.

Intrigued to find out if his idea was at all feasible, Edward flew out to Tanzania for two weeks for a business research trip. Oliver was working at a renewable energy company in the UK at the time and upon Edwards return, he joined Edward in a pub in Bristol for an informal chat. Reminiscing over this meeting Oliver tells me that at as they got talking about the possibilities, they both thought: “May be, may be we could just do this.” By the age of 25 the pair had formed Shamba Technologies, a renewable energy company in Tanzania.

In the early stages of the company, they lived on a farm in rural Tanzania in order to test their products for the local market. This was a crucial step that Oliver and Edward took because only by putting themselves in the shoes of their target market could they design products that were appropriate for low-income households.

Although Shamba Technologies started off with biodigesters, the company has now focussed on a new product that generates electricity from solar power. Increasing access to electricity is key to reducing poverty: health, education and communication can be greatly improved. In Tanzania, 15% of the population have access to electricity and there isn’t any semblance of an electrical grid outside of the cities. Therefore, products that can provide clean electrical power off-grid are pivotal in lifting millions of people out of poverty.

Oliver tells me that there have been three key technological advances which have paved the way to being able to develop such a product: solar panels, LEDs and batteries. They have all become more effective and cheaper over the years. Using these components, Shamba Technologies have developed a domestic solar product with an interesting design feature: the product can be bought in affordable chunks and assembled like Lego. In fact, Oliver says that this modular design was influenced by observing how a Tanzanian built their houses near their farm.

This product can be bought in affordable chunks and assembled like Lego.

“One day the foundations were laid and they were left for a few months, then some trucks came along with bricks and a few layers were laid down. A further six months went by, weeds started growing on the unfinished walls and we’d thought the building had been abandoned, but sure enough they came back with more bricks.”

This erratic building schedule is reflected in how Tanzanians spend their money. A stable wage with an hourly rate is hard to come by in Tanzania, and workers usually get paid in lump sums for a period of work or after selling farm produce. Given the lack of secure banking in Tanzania, it is prudent to turn your money into assets as soon as possible. So a Tanzanian would buy as many bricks as their money can allow, lay them on their house and then wait for the next pay packet.

The modular design of the solar energy product that Shamba Technologies have developed is a brilliant example of how Oliver and Edward have really understood and listened to their market. This underlying ethos of their company has put them in good stead for future success in the renewable energy market in Africa.

Edward and Oliver in Tanzania.

At present, Oliver still lives in Tanzania carrying out market trials of their products and Edward has recently returned from a year in China where he has been learning how to decrease the cost of their products through mass-manufacture. Shamba Technologies have high hopes for the future and would like to be at the forefront of Africa’s renewable energy sector in the next 10 years.

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This blog is written by Cabot Institute member and PhD student Lewis Roberts.

Where does all the power go?

Posted on May 6, 2014April 14, 2023 by janet.crompton

Ever wondered how much of your electricity bill goes on charging your laptop, or whether your TV is a bigger drain on your wallet than your kettle? I have…

A good basis to use in answering that question is the Annual ‘Energy Consumption in the UK’ report by DECC. Using their data on household electricity consumption, I’ve plotted a short history of UK electricity use by appliance. I’ve tried to aggregate similar devices together to create 6 categories: lighting, refrigeration, washing & drying, consumer electronics (TVs, consoles, device chargers), computing (desktops, laptops, monitors, printers) and cooking. It’s also important to note that this data is a total for all households in the UK, and is not taken on a per device basis.

The biggest individual energy guzzling devices today are TVs, refrigerators, halogen bulbs and power supply units (including chargers).

Some of this information isn’t surprising- refrigeration is notoriously expensive in physical terms, as it involves reversing a thermodynamic heat engine, in effect using energy to ‘suck’ the heat out of the colder compartment. Halogen bulbs are also commonly known as a large energy drain, due to their ubiquity and relatively low efficiency. Energy efficiency of both refrigeration and lighting have seen significant advances in the past few decades, and the relative drain on household energy of such devices reflects this.

I am, however, puzzled to see TVs on the list. The new generation of LED TVs and the advances in energy efficiency in electronics gave me the impression that these devices were far greener than their predecessors. In fact, the electricity used by TVs doubled between 1970 and 2000, and has almost tripled by 2012. I imagine this means that far more households have TVs now and that an increasing number of households own several. Even so, it is difficult to see why efficiency technology has not slowed the rate of growth of the electricity needs of televisions.

Laptops form a surprisingly small part of household electricity use, and power supply units (PSUs) and chargers appear to constitute a much larger energy drain. Perhaps the proliferation of smartphones and tablet PCs has something to do with this; the sheer number of devices that need charging may be the reason for the large increase in PSU consumption over the last few decades.

What can we take away from these statistics? On the surface, they hold few new suggestions in terms of how we should behave in order to save energy. It is common knowledge that one should boil as little water as possible in electric kettles, switch off devices and lights when they aren’t being used and purchase energy-saving devices instead of more power-hungry alternatives. However, these numbers do identify a large potential saving in energy consumption by switching to more efficient lighting methods and a significant rise in energy consumption by TVs and PSUs. The bottom line? Unplugging those idle device chargers won’t save the world from climate change, but it certainly could help.

This blog is written by Neeraj Oak, Cabot Institute.

Neeraj Oak