wheat – Cabot Institute for the Environment blog

New challenges to the UK fruit supply chain

Posted on February 15, 2016April 12, 2023 by janet.crompton

I was lucky to write my dissertation for the MSc degree in Environmental Policy and Management on a topic that is crucial, needs thorough examination, and is of uttermost interest to me. The project explored the impact of extreme weather events on resilience of the fruit supply chain in the UK with a case study of the UK apple supply chain. This project was done under the dissertation partnership scheme and was proposed by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA).

This project drew on several other studies conducted in this field, indicating the need to assess the vulnerability of the UK food supply to climate change, and extreme weather in particular. The most recent project was performed by the Cranfield University on behalf of DEFRA and estimated the resilience of the UK wheat and potato supply chains towards extreme weather. Therefore, it was agreed that I would focus on another supply chain to contribute to the knowledge necessary for the development of adaptation strategies and delivering advice to industry.

The apple supply chain was chosen for the case study as apples are characterized by the largest UK home production among fruits grown in the UK. The main research objectives were:

Explore key vulnerabilities of fruit production to extreme weather by conducting literature review.
Investigate impacts of extreme weather on apple home production.
Evaluate factors affecting resilience of imports and retail of apples.
On the basis of the case study on apples, determine factors affecting supply chain resilience for other types of fruits.
Formulate recommendations on enhancing general fruit supply resilience.

The literature review revealed several key vulnerabilities of fruit development: winter chilling (for apples, 1000-1500 cumulative chilling hours at a temperature lower than 7°C are required over winter for successful development of the fruit), spring frost, rainfall, pests and diseases. Resilience of the apple supply chain was studied using a case study as the research strategy. Interviews and questionnaires were selected as methods for data collection. Interviews were targeted at all-UK fruit growers’ organizations, major importing companies, several large farms, and UK supermarkets, which yielded altogether 17 interviews. In addition, self-administered questionnaires were targeted specifically at apple growers in the UK irrespective of the region. 20th Century Reanalysis (V2) data was used to assess the trend in winter chilling hours in the UK.

I was very curious about the project as I was feeling that my research could indeed contribute to the understanding of the influence of extreme weather on food security in the UK. It was an amazing experience to talk to farmers, fruit producers and their organisations to actually hear real stories on how climate change affects them and what can be done and what they do to adapt.

Responses from the questionnaires and interviews revealed that farmers have experienced impact of extreme weather, but it has not been detrimental to the apple growing industry so far. The conducted analysis of the winter chilling trend has revealed its current decline and indicated the same decreasing tendency for the future. Additionally, it showed that the period of the hours with the air temperature less than 7°C is becoming warmer. The breeding of low chill plant varieties (cultivars) is probably the most obvious solution to insufficient chilling, the other ones being defoliation and temperature treatments and chemical breaking. However, it is difficult to breed new cultivars, and this takes a long time.

The well-designed contingency plan, good relationship with suppliers and their diversification, as well as sound knowledge of apple growing seasons in different countries are considered to be the key factors making the apple supply chain resilient from the point of view of importers and supermarket representatives. A long shelf life and cheap transportation conditions add to the resilience. Although respondents acknowledged that they do encounter problems related to extreme weather events, they have always managed to tackle them and do not perceive them as threatening UK supply.

Pear orchard. By Jonathan Billinger, CC BY-SA 2.0

The same conclusions about the impact of extreme weather events refer to pears as they have the most similar vulnerabilities to apples in terms of extreme weather. Cherries are now increasingly grown under plastic covers, which implies that impact of hail and wind is less of a problem for them. Poly tunnel or glass protection is used for soft fruit except for blackcurrants that are grown in the field. However, protection is removed for winter, therefore, extreme rainfall and flooding and winter chilling still might be a problem. Winter chilling is projected to be more of an issue for apples, cherries, European plums, blackcurrants and raspberries, as these require a considerable amount of chilling hours (from 800 to 1500-1700).

Importers build their contingency plans for all types of fruits, and none of the respondents mentioned any problems with their supply. Given the favourable financial situation of the UK, these considerations may entail that no matter the potential impacts of the extreme weather in the UK in the future, the fruit supply chain will always be resilient for the end consumer. However, this situation is not encouraging for farmers as the predicted increase in extreme weather events will potentially mean losses in their production or even complete closure of their business. The option of moving production to the north to obtain more winter chilling does not feel feasible as orchards are very expensive and it takes several years to obtain the first yield. Moreover, there are apparent complications in terms of moving home and the whole business to another region. In order to prevent this, an increased knowledge transfer is needed between horticulture and climate scientists and individual farmers to help them prepare for extreme weather as well as enable to take the necessary measures. Financial support for purchasing advanced scab detecting and moisture sensing equipment, and taking hail insurance, might be needed.

Hail nets over apple trees, like these in France, may become more common in the UK as more extreme weather takes place. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons, Aups.

The study concludes that in general the fruit supply chain in the UK is quite resilient for the end consumer, importing industry and retail, with growers potentially having more problems in terms of the impact of extreme weather on the crop in the future. In the first place, this might be caused by a decrease in winter chilling.

Despite the fact that in general the respondents were indicating the same set of problems, which was assuring for me, there was a clear tendency for academic staff in different universities I contacted and representatives of farmers’ unions to focus more on winter chilling in comparison to individual farmers. This might be explained by the difficulty in assessing changes in winter chilling without actually conducting analysis in this field. It is very interesting to know how climate change may impact food security by altering winter chilling patterns, which is not obvious, not easy to notice or track. At the same time, if measures for development of new low-chill cultivars are not taken now, a decline in apple production may appear unexpectedly.

Certainly, the study has its limitations. These included time constraints due to the fixed time frame for conducting an MSc dissertation (there is so much more to explore on the subject!), lack of accurate extreme weather predictions linked to uncertainty in climate models and inability to make accurate attributions of an extreme event to a change in apple production unless it is an obvious event which caused immediate damage (like hail, for example). However, despite these limitations, I hope that my research will help the UK Government deliver necessary advice to industry. I have always felt that the topic of my dissertation is important, and for me it was very rewarding to know that my work is really needed.

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This blog was written by Evgeniia Kostianaia, who studied an MSc in Environmental Policy and Management in 2014-2015 at the University of Bristol.

Evgeniia Kostianaia

Find out more about the Cabot Institute supported Community Based Learning Projects at the University of Bristol or contact cabot-cbl@bristol.ac.uk if you would like a student to conduct a research project for your organisation.

A brief introduction to how Bristol’s plant science might save the world

Posted on April 2, 2014April 19, 2023 by janet.crompton

Global crop yields of wheat and corn are starting to decline, and the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests things are only going to get worse.

Last year I looked at previous research into what climate change might mean for global crop yields and found that overall crop yields would remain stable but regional declines could prove devastating for certain parts of the world. The definitive new report from the IPCC finds that actually a temperature rise of just 1°C will have negative impacts on the global yields of wheat, rice and maize, the three major crop plants. Food prices could increase by as much as 84% by 2050, with countries in the tropics being much more badly affected than northern Europe and North America.

All over the world, research is underway to find sustainable ways to feed the growing population. Scientists within the Cabot Institute’s Food Security research theme are working on a range of problems that should help us manage the threat that climate change presents.

Improving crop breeding

The average increase in yields of the world’s most important crops is slowing down, which means that supply is not keeping up with demand. Professor Keith Edwards and Dr. Gary Barker are leading UK research into wheat genomes, developing molecular markers linked to economically important traits. These markers are often Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), which are single letter differences in the DNA code. It’s possible to find SNPs linked to areas of the genome associated with disease resistance or increased yield, allowing breeders to rapidly check whether plants have the traits they are looking for.

Wheat is a vital crop for UK agriculture as well as global food security.

Water use in plants

Climate change means that many parts of the world will face extreme weather events like droughts. Clean, fresh water is already an increasingly valuable resource and is predicted to be a major source of global conflict in the future.

Plants produce microscopic pores known as stomata on their leaves and stems, which open to take in carbon dioxide for photosynthesis but close in drought conditions to prevent excess water loss from the plant. Professor Alistair Hetherington’s group looks at the environmental conditions that affect stomatal formation and function, which will help to determine how droughts or higher carbon dioxide levels might affect crop productivity in the future and how we might enhance their water use efficiency.

Professor Claire Grierson’s group are working on root development, another important factor in managing how plants use water. Plants produce elongated root hairs which extend out into the substrate, increasing the root surface area in order to absorb more water and nutrients. If we can understand how root hairs are produced, we may be able to breed plants with even more efficient roots, able to extract enough water from nearly-dry soil in periods of low rainfall.

Each root hair is a single elongated cell that hugely increases a plant’s ability to take up water.

Preventing disease

Mycosphaerella graminicola is a wheat
pathogen that greatly reduces yield,
posing the biggest risk to wheat production worldwide.

A particular concern of climate change is that diseases may spread to new areas or be more destructive than they used to be. Professor Gary Foster and Dr. Andy Bailey are leading research into a variety of fungal and viral plant pathogens, which are responsible for devastating crop yields around the world. They use new molecular techniques to determine exactly how diseases begin and what treatments are effective against them, information that will be vital as plant disease patterns change across the world.

Crop pollination

It is still unclear whether climate change is affecting bees, however some research suggests that flowers requiring pollination are getting out of sync with bees and other pollinators. This might not be a problem for wind-pollinated crops like maize and barley, or self-pollinators like wheat and rice, however most fruits and oil crops rely on pollinators to transfer pollen from plant to plant. Dr. Heather Whitney researches the interaction between plants and their pollinators, particularly focussing on how petal structure, glossiness and iridescence can attract foraging bees.

Plants in a warmer world

As the planet warms, the IPCC has shown that there will be an overall decrease in crop productivity. Climate change has had an overall negative impact on crops in the past 10 years, with extreme droughts and flooding leading to rapid price spikes, especially in wheat. Dr. Kerry Franklin is investigating the interaction between light and temperature responses in plants. High temperatures induce a similar reaction in plants to that of shade; plants elongate, bend their leaves upwards and flower early, which is likely to reduce their overall yield. We need to understand the benefits and costs of plant responses to temperature, and look for alternative growing approaches to maintain and hopefully even increase crop yields in a warmer world.

What does the future hold?

The IPCC report shows that if nothing changes, we are rapidly heading towards a global catastrophe. Food production will drop, which combined with the increasing population means that billions of people could face starvation. The IPCC is keen to highlight that new ways of growing and distributing food may mitigate some of the consequences that we can no longer avoid, and a key part of that is understanding how plants (and their pathogens) will respond to changes in temperature, water availability and increases in CO2.

The research by some of the University of Bristol’s plant scientists, highlighted above, should provide important knowledge that plant breeders can utilise to develop and grow crops more suited to the daunting world that climate change will present.

This blog is written by Sarah Jose, Cabot Institute, Biological Sciences, University of Bristol

You can follow Sarah on Twitter @JoseSci

Sarah Jose

2nd Generation biofuels: a transdisciplinary dialogue

Posted on March 24, 2014April 19, 2023 by janet.crompton

“Globally, there are politically important evidence gaps, but nationally, those evidence gaps are just not important enough for policy-makers to take account of them”.

This was one comment summing up the discussion I had at a workshop on the development of 2nd generation, or cellulosic, biofuels (biofuels produced from crops or waste, that is not otherwise used as food). The workshop’s aim was to produce ‘A transdisciplinary dialogue on the opportunities and challenges of cellulosic ethanol in the UK’, and was run by Dr. Kate Millar, the Director of the Centre for Applied Bioethics. It was part of a number of events convened for the EU Framework 7 project, “Integrated EST-Framework” (EST-Frame). Bringing together 12 scientists, engineers, environmental scientists and social scientists is not an easy feat, but the 24 hours’ of the workshop produced some extremely interesting discussions.

My own research considers endeavours to overcome some of the sustainability problems commonly associated with 1st generation biofuels (e.g. sugarcane and wheat), and so I was particularly interested in how the development of 2nd generation biofuels might change the sustainability landscape. Would many of the problems associated with biofuels in general – increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when compared with fossil fuels, land grabbing, food insecurity and biodiversity loss – disappear if we were to start producing 2nd generation biofuels?

Policy problems

Oilseed rape grown for 1st
generation biofuel has limitations.
Image credit: Richard Webb

Much of the first day of the workshop was spent discussing ‘policy problems’ that would need to be overcome for the successful production of cellulosic biofuel for consumption in the UK. 2nd generation biofuels have not been viably commercialised to date largely because of the cost of production. But this is not the only policy problem to be overcome. 2nd generation biofuel will not only come from ‘waste’, but also from crops, such as miscanthus, which are specifically grown as biofuel feedstock. But policies to encourage the use of crop residues for biofuels, depend, first, upon the categorisation of the cellulose left behind in the farming of particular crops as ‘waste’ and, second, upon a decision that the ‘best’ use of that waste is its conversion to energy. This decision may, in turn, depend upon an assumption relating to national energy security.

When discussing the problems that would need to be overcome for the production of 2nd generation biofuel, it soon became clear that our own understanding of the problems depended upon the frames through which they were envisioned, and/or the assumptions that might be made in even categorising them as problems in the first place. Such frames and assumptions need to be unpicked when making policy decisions relating to, for example, the ‘best’ use of land, the ‘best’ conversion processes, displacement effects resulting from the adoption of those policies, and the valuations made in assessing ‘costs’ resulting from the production of such biofuels.

Indirect land use change (ILUC)

One thorny issue relating to biofuels production has been that of ILUC. ILUC has been a huge spoke in the wheel of policy-makers’ development of policy in relation to the development of biofuels, not only in the UK, but in the EU, and further afield. Endeavouring to tackle this issue involves identifying potential knock-on effects resulting from direct land use change to biofuels feedstocks (whether 1st or 2nd generation). These might include increased GHG emissions, erosion, biodiversity loss, or increased insecurity in relation to land rights or food supply of local people.

While the focus of policy-makers’ concerns in relation to ILUC has to date been GHG emissions, views in relation to all of these issues also depend upon one’s assumptions/framing. Furthermore, such issues are by their very definition uncertain (because they involve future potential scenarios) and, in tackling each of them, require policy-makers to give value (either positive or negative value) to those potential scenarios. Some of the values endowed by policy-makers in assessing indirect or direct land use change may be quantifiable. Others, such as the values given by local people to their landscape before it is transformed for biofuel feedstocks, may not be. Moreover, land use change resulting from policies made in the UK, may be taking place in countries as far afield as Africa or South East Asia, for example.

While some participants thought that this demonstrated that even endeavouring to tackle an issue such as ILUC was purely altruistic, and therefore usually not important enough for national policy-makers to be swayed by, others argued that it was not altruism that demanded its recognition, but an appreciation of the integrated nature of our world, its people and environment, and markets for feedstocks. Without actively sympathising with policy-makers, many participants recognised that there are no right answers when it comes to ILUC.

Need for a holistic approach in policy-making

Image by Steve Jurvetson

When discussion moved on to consider the types of evidence required for policy-makers to tackle the policy problems, we soon realised that different forms of ‘evidence’ were often integrated. Moreover, it was not lack of evidence that was the problem for policy-makers, or even ambiguity and uncertainty in the evidence, but the appraisal of that evidence. This requires political decisions to be taken, something that policy-makers seem, ironically, to be distinctly uncomfortable with in relation to this area.

The workshop was a valuable exercise. To paraphrase one participant: many of the technical or economic issues relating to the development of cellulosic biofuels in the UK could be resolved by taking a very narrow view of the problem. However, such issues do encompass wider issues. Countering the scientists’ and engineers’ ‘problem-solving’ approaches to policy issues, with social scientists’ more critical understanding of the social issues surrounding the problems is always going to be a challenge, but one that, I believe, is crucial if those problems are really going to be solved with any success.

This blog is written by Cabot Institute member Dr Elizabeth Fortin, University of Bristol Law School.