Many conservatives have a difficult relationship with science – we wanted to find out why

 

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Many scientific findings continue to be disputed by politicians and parts of the public long after a scholarly consensus has been established. For example, nearly a third of Americans still do not accept that fossil fuel emissions cause climate change, even though the scientific community settled on a consensus that they do decades ago.

Research into why people reject scientific facts has identified people’s political worldviews as the principal predictor variable. People with a libertarian or conservative worldview are more likely to reject climate change and evolution and are less likely to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

What explains this propensity for rejection of science by some of the political right? Are there intrinsic attributes of the scientific enterprise that are uniquely challenging to people with conservative or libertarian worldviews? Or is the association merely the result of conflicting imperatives between scientific findings and their economic implications? In the case of climate change, for example, any mitigation necessarily entails interference with current economic practice.

We recently conducted two large-scale surveys that explored the first possibility – that some intrinsic attributes of science are in tension with aspects of conservative thinking. We focused on two aspects of science: the often tacit norms and principles that guide the scientific enterprise, and the history of how scientific progress has led us to understand that human beings are not the centre of the universe.

Sociologist Robert Merton famously proposed norms for the conduct of science in 1942. The norm of “communism” (different from the political philosophy of communism) holds that the results of scientific research should be the common property of the scientific community. “Universalism” postulates that knowledge should transcend racial, class, national or political barriers. “Disinteredness” mandates that scientists should conduct research for the benefit of the scientific enterprise rather than for personal gain.

These norms sit uneasily with strands of standard contemporary conservative thought. Conservatism is typically associated with nationalism and patriotism, at the expense of embracing cooperative internationalism. And the notion of disinterestedness may not mesh well with conservative emphasis on property rights.

Science has enabled us to explain the world around us but that may create further tensions – especially with religious conservatism. The idea that humans are exceptional is at the core of traditional Judeo-Christian thought, which sees the human as an imago Dei, an image of God, that is clearly separate from other beings and nature itself.

Against this human exceptionalism, the over-arching outcome of centuries of research since the scientific revolution has been a diminution of the status of human beings. We now recognise our planet to be a rather small and insignificant object in a universe full of an untold number of galaxies, rather than the centre of all creation.

Testing the issues

We tested how those two over-arching attributes of science – its intrinsic norms and its historical effect on how humans see themselves – might relate to conservative thought and acceptance of scientific facts in two large-scale studies. Each involved a representative sample of around 1,000 US residents.

We focused on three scientific issues; climate change, vaccinations, and the heritability of intelligence. The first two were chosen because of their known tendency to be rejected by people on the political right, allowing us to observe the potential moderating role of other predictors.

The latter was chosen because the belief that external forces such as education can improve people and their circumstances is a focus of liberalism. Conservatism, on the other hand, is skeptical of that possibility and leans more towards the idea that improvement comes from the individual – implying a lesser role for the malleability of intelligence.

The fact that individual differences in intelligence are related to genetic differences, with current estimates of heritability hovering around 50%, is therefore potentially challenging to liberals but might be endorsed by conservatives.

The two studies differed slightly in how we measured political views and people’s endorsement of the norms of science, but the overall findings were quite clear. Conservatives were less likely to accept the norms of science, suggesting that the worldviews of some people on the political right may be in intrinsic conflict with the scientific enterprise.

Those people who accepted the norms of science were also more likely to endorse vaccinations and support the need to fight climate change. This suggests that people who embrace the scientific enterprise as a whole are also more likely to accept specific scientific findings.

We found limited support for the possibility that belief in human exceptionalism would predispose people to be more sceptical in their acceptance of scientific propositions. Exceptionalism had little direct effect on scientific attitudes. Therefore, our study provided no evidence for the conjecture that the long history of science in displacing humans from the centre of the world contributes to conversatives’ uneasiness with science.

Finally, we found no strong evidence that people on the political left are more likely to reject the genetic contribution to individual variation in intelligence. This negative result adds to the evidence that science denial is harder to find on the left, even concerning issues where basic aspects of liberal thought – in this case the belief that people can be improved – are in potential conflict with the evidence.

The two studies help explain why conservatives are more likely to reject scientific findings than liberals. This rejection is not only dictated by political interests clashing with a specific body of scientific knowledge (such as human-caused climate change), but it appears to represent a deeper tension between conservatism and the spirit in which science is commonly conducted.The Conversation

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This blog has been written by Cabot Institute for the Environment member Professor Stephan Lewandowsky, Chair of Cognitive Psychology, University of Bristol and Klaus Oberauer, Professor of Cognitive Psychology, University of Zurich. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Regenerative agriculture: lessons learnt at Groundswell

Do people realise the extent to which they rely upon farming? In many other professions, such as medicine, those who enjoy good health can have years between visits to healthcare professionals. In contrast, it is hard to imagine how we could live without UK farmers. For instance, UK farmers produce 60% of all food eaten in the UK (Contributions of UK Agriculture, 2017). Despite the importance of UK farmers for our national infrastructure, there is little understanding of the web of issues facing farmers today. Drawing from our recent experiences at Groundswell, we hope to highlight some of the surprises that we discovered during our conversations with farmers, agronomists, charities, and even film producers!

Our first surprise was appreciating the complexities between agronomists and farmers. We knew from our interviews that farmers are often cautious of the advice from agronomists because some receive commission for the chemical companies they represent. In one sense, the polarisation between agronomists and farmers was exacerbated at Groundswell because many farmers who have adopted the principles of regenerative agriculture (Regen Ag) on their farms either have background expertise as agronomists themselves, or have needed to learn much of the expert of knowledge of soil and arable health required for agronomy. In this sense, many farmers invested in the principles of Regen Ag are expanding their knowledge and reducing their need to appeal to agronomists. In contrast, the majority of  farmers outside of the Regen Ag movement still depend on the knowledge and guidance of agronomists.

The problem is that the legacy of the relationship between agronomists and farmers has itself become a barrier against behaviour change. Without complete trust between agronomists and farmers agronomists are hesitant to suggest innovative changes to farming practices which may result in short term losses in yields and profits for farmers. The concern is that farmers will cease the contracts with their agronomists if their advice results in a loss in profits or even yields. We listened to many anecdotes about farmers who are worried about how the judgment from local farmers if their yields look smaller from the roadside.  The message that is difficult to convey is if you reduce your input, maintenance, and labour costs, then profitability can increase despite the reduction in yields. In short, “yields are for vanity, profits are for sanity!”

The five principles of Regen Ag are diversity, livestock integration, minimise soil disturbance, maintain living roots, and protect soil surface. Regen Ag provides simple accessible guidelines for farmers who want to adopt more sustainable practices. It offers an alternative approach to the binary division between conventional and organic farmer by encouraging farmers to make changes where possible, whilst understanding that chemical inputs on farms remain a last resort for managing soil health.

Establishing effective pathways to increase the number of farmers integrating the principles of Regen Ag is far from simple. It is not merely about increasing knowledge between farmers and agronomists, without building robust networks of trust between agronomists and farmers there is very little possibility for change. One suggestion from agronomists to help build these networks of trust was for agronomists to invest in profit shares so that there are incentives in place for both agronomists and farmers to increase the overall profitability of farms. We must recognise that any strategies for behaviour change need to account for the underlying caution toward the industry of agronomy by significant numbers of the farming community. Some agronomists consider this fundamentally as a psychological issue. Building from this perspective it seems obvious there is a space for psychologists to develop therapeutic techniques to develop and consolidate trust between farmers and agronomists. Currently many farmers and agronomists are stuck in status quo where it seems easier not to “rock the boat” on either side. The problem is that long-term this is not sustainable for various reasons.

The sustained use of chemicals alongside conventional farming practices (such as tilling) is a significant factor for reductions in soil health and soil biodiversity. In turn it creates a feedback cycle whereby larger quantities of chemical input is required to sustain yield levels, but these chemicals inadvertently create the conditions for increased antimicrobial resistance. One way to reduce chemical inputs is to adopt practices such as intercropping and crop rotation. These practices can have a number of immediate benefits including planting crops that deter pests, improving soil health, creating resilience by encouraging selective pressures between crops.

Tilling not only reduces biodiversity but it also compacts soils increasing risks associated with flooding. Public awareness has tended to focus on the increasing amount of concrete as one of the leading contributors of flash flooding. However, water retention differs significantly between different soil management systems. The rainfall simulator demonstrated how water runoff from even 2 inches of rain on cultivated soils were significantly higher than permanent pastures, no-till soils and herbal leys. Issues associated with cultivated soils such as compaction and lack of biodiversity significantly reduce water retention. The need for solutions to flash flooding are rapidly increasing given the rise in unstable and unpredictable weather system associated with climate change. The tendency to frame the solution to flash flooding solely as the need for more fields and less concrete overlooks the important relationship between soil health and water retention, which should be at the centre of flood prevention schemes. Although the number of fields is an important factor for flood prevention, we should be focusing on what’s happening in these fields – or more precisely underneath them. Encouraging robust and established root systems and soil biodiversity through co-cropping, crop rotations, and reduction in chemicals significantly increases soil retention. In this sense, there is clearly a role for farmers to adopt soil management practices that increase water retention within their farms, but these potential environmental protections from farmers need to translate into subsidies and incentives at the local and national levels.

The central message of Groundswell is that Regen Ag is providing the opportunity for farmers to build resilience both in their farms and in their communities. New technologies and avenues of funding are providing opportunities for farmers to exchange knowledge and increase their autonomy together by engaging in new collaborative ventures. Cluster farming initiatives have provided opportunities for farmers to build local support networks and identify longer-term goals and potential funding sources. The future development of resilience at these levels requires communities to support one another to encourage farmers to become indispensably rooted in communities. Some cluster farm leads are specialists offering support to farmers to help establish their long-term goals, secure funding opportunities, and increase the autonomy and security from the ground-up. In fact, there are a number of organisations seeking to support farmers by working with academics, policy makers, and industry. To name a handful of the organisations, we connected with representatives from Innovation for Agriculture, AHDB, FWAG, and Soil Heroes.

We have returned from Groundswell with a deeper appreciation of the complexity of issues that farmers are currently tackling. From navigating their complex relationships with agronomists to uncertainties about how government will account for their needs in the upcoming Environmental Land Management Schemes (ELMS). There is a clear sense in which farmers feel that ELMS current focus on agroforestry and rewilding creates potential obstacles to providing sufficient support for farmers in the economic and environmental uncertainties on the horizon. Regen Ag demonstrates the crucial role for farmers.

Find out more about our project on the use of fungicides in arable farming.

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This blog is written by Dr Andrew Jones, University of Exeter. Andrew works on a Cabot Institute funded project looking at understanding agricultural azole use, impacts on local water bodies and antimicrobial resistance.

The COP26 Goals and Small Island Developing States

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have had a giant impact on international climate negotiations. As part of the Alliance of Small Island States and the High Ambition Coalition, SIDS have pushed for the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target through their tagline “1.5°C to stay alive” as well as their advocacy for loss and damage and climate adaptation finance. Without them, the Paris Agreement would not be nearly as ambitious [1], and there would not be the focus on the 1.5°C temperature goal to the extent there is today. SIDS are amongst the countries on the frontline of the climate emergency, whilst being some of the least responsible for greenhouse gases causing anthropogenic climate change.

But SIDS have not sat back quietly whilst their future becomes more uncertain. They are fighting for the assurances of climate mitigation from the rest of the world to help ensure their habitable future.

As part of this year’s United Nations Climate Conference COP26, four goals have been set to drive forward ambition to tackle the climate emergency. Here are four reasons why achieving these goals is not only crucial for the future of humanity, but especially for SIDS.

1. Secure global net zero by mid-century and keep 1.5°C within reach

SIDS have long been champions of the 1.5°C goal, underlining the science that demonstrates that limiting warming to 2°C would be inadequate to ensure a habitable future for some small island states. Following the 2018 IPCC report looking at the impacts of a world at 1.5°C and 2°C, a 1.5°C global temperature rise in SIDS would already lead to [2]:

    ↑ More intense rainfall events

    ↑ More extreme heat

    ↑ Longer and more extreme drought

    ↑ Increased flooding

    ↑ Freshwater stress

    ↑ Significant loss of coral reefs

    ↑ Sea level rise

Any increase greater than 1.5°C would compound and exacerbate these risks further and could lead to the loss of ancestral homelands for thousands of people in low-lying islands such as the Maldives or Kiribati. For other islands, there would be severe impacts on lives and livelihoods. To highlight just one example, communities in small islands often rely on coral reefs for food, storm protection and tourism (to name but a few of the many reasons coral reefs are critical to coastal communities all over the world). But at 2°C warming, 99% of coral reefs are likely to perish [2]. For some small islands it really is “1.5°C to stay alive”.

2. Adapt to protect communities and natural habitats

Adaptation will be required in SIDS to help communities adjust to the consequences of a more extreme climate. From coral reef and mangrove restoration in the Caribbean, to early warning systems in the Pacific, adaptation strategies in SIDS are accelerating, but this must be aided by appropriate finance and support. The United Nations proposes that at least 50% of climate finance should be spent on building resilience and adaptation, but financial capital is currently the key limiting factor for adaptation in SIDS. Mobilising finance to boost adaptation projects would be the first step up a long ladder in assisting SIDS facing the steep cost of adapting to a climate they did not create.

3. Mobilise finance

Developing nations such as those in SIDS need financial assistance from developed economies to fund adaptation and the transition to a greener future. This is entirely reasonable considering that developed nations have built their economies using fossil fuels, of which the consequences are a) already impacting SIDS today and b) not an option to fuel sustainable development. Developed countries pledged to raise at least $100billion annually by 2020 to support developing countries with adaptation and mitigation, but in 2018 just $78.9billion had been mobilised [3]. Even if this $100billion is attained it would still be vastly insufficient, considering estimated costs of adaptation in developing countries will be $280-500billion in 2050 [4].

But what about the communities or entire islands who cannot adapt? SIDS have also been key advocates for loss and damage reparations, seeking compensation for their inequitable experience of climate-related disasters and for the loss and damages that cannot be recovered or adapted against. Broadly speaking, this refers to climate-related loss and damages – such as those from weather and hazard events we know are being made more likely and more severe by climate change – as well as helping to avoid future loss and damage through adequate risk reduction and adaptation.

In whichever form these reparations come, it is vital that they come faster and with bolder ambition.

4. Work together to deliver ambition into action

Small Island Developing States cannot combat the climate emergency alone. After all, the very reason for the extreme injustice of climate change in SIDS is that they have done little to cause the problem that they are bearing the consequences of. To put this in context, SIDS are responsible collectively for less than 1% of global greenhouse emissions [5]. This is where governments, business, and civil society from all over the world come in. SIDS (and the entire planet, frankly) need all countries to come forward with robust plans and targets for slashing emissions by at least 50% by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050, as well as agreeing to mobilise finance to support adaptation against the damage we have already locked in.

Time is ticking. Let’s ensure these goals are achieved at COP26 to help speed up our race against the clock, so that we can safeguard a habitable future for SIDS, for ourselves and the planet.

References

[1] Ourbak, T. & Magnan, A. K. The Paris Agreement and climate change negotiations: Small Islands, big players. Regional Environmental Change vol. 18 2201–2207 (2018).

[2] Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5oC global warming on natural and human systems. in Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, (ed. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 175–311 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018).

[3] OECD. Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries in 2013-18. OECD https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/finance-and-investment/climate-finance-provided-and-mobilised-by-developed-countries-in-2013-18_f0773d55-en (2020) doi:10.1787/F0773D55-EN.

[4] United Nations Environment Programme. Adaptation Gap Report 2020. https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2020 (2020).

[5] Thomas, A. et al. Climate Change and Small Island Developing States. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 45, (2020).

Header image: Leigh Blackall (CC BY 2.0)

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This blog is written by Cabot Institute for the Environment member Leanne Archer, School of Geographical Science, University of Bristol. Leanne is a NERC GW4+ PhD student interested in disaster risk in Small Island Developing States, investigating how flood inundation estimates could be improved in small islands under current and future climate change. You can follow Leanne on Twitter @leanne_archer_

Airport towns like Luton and Hounslow are suffering as people fly less often – here’s how to help them

Thousands of aircraft were grounded during the pandemic. Now research is showing people might fly less.
JetKat/Shutterstock

Tens of thousands of aircraft have been grounded for well over a year due to the pandemic. In April 2020 air travel around the world was cut by 94% from April 2019. By June 2021 it was still 60% down on June 2019 thanks to holidays being cancelled, work trips shelved, and long-planned journeys to see family and friends moved to another time.

Never has any global industry collapsed with such speed. In climate terms, this has been a cause for celebration. It has represented a chance for reducing emissions that contribute significantly to climate change and pollute our air.

Some people who live close to an airport may also have welcomed the drop in noise. But many others will be worrying about the effect the long-term reduction in air travel may have on their community’s economy.

Will the industry bounce back?

Industrial bodies estimate that it might take five years for passenger demand to return to pre-pandemic levels. That’s a longer expected recovery than any other mode of transport. Globally, an estimated 46 million jobs have been deemed at risk. This isn’t just pilots or cabin crew; it’s also those who screen your baggage or make your lunch.

But will the air industry even bounce back in five years? Research our team conducted in early 2021 in Bristol, an English city with an airport and a century-old aviation industry, found that close to 60% of those surveyed expect to fly less in the future. Many of our respondents gave climate change and the pandemic as equally important reasons. Other polling has shown that many elsewhere remain wary of flying in the future too.

Businesses may also operate differently. Polling has found that four in ten business travellers are likely to fly less in the future. Business-class seats are an important part of airline income – on some flights corporate travel can represent 75% of revenue.

Setting aside ideas about electric planes for now, it seems obvious that we will need to fly less to move to a zero-carbon economy. Two-thirds of people want a post-pandemic economic recovery to prioritise climate change. This means fewer planes, and fewer jobs for crew and baggage handlers and so on.

Rebuilding communities

The decline of older industries such as mining, textiles or pottery resulted in high unemployment in towns which were massively dependent on one of them. We are all familiar with how the closure of a local pit or car plant caused the decline of once vibrant towns, leaving a generation to struggle with unemployment and the need to retrain.

Steel mills were nestled deep in the fabric of nearby communities. Their closure removed the pivot around which lives, work and leisure were based. So with the pandemic, whole communities are at risk of a similar economic decline.

In summer 2020 the rate of those jobless (be it unemployed or on furlough) was higher in areas near UK airports. In Hounslow (near London Heathrow) this was 40% of the population – with an estimated £1 billion loss to the borough’s economy. At Gatwick airport in 2020, there were job losses for 40% of its workforce, many of whom live in nearby towns such as Crawley.

Hounslow in west London
Towns like Hounslow are highly dependent on the nearby airport for employment.
BasPhoto/Shutterstock

Many towns and communities are economically dependent on nearby airports. Luton Airport is estimated to have sustained over 27,000 jobs (directly and indirectly) and is a major employer in the region. The decline of the sector has broader effects on subsidiary industries too, such as taxis, maintenance, catering and hotels.

So what is to be done? The Green Jobs Taskforce, an industry and government initiative set up in 2020 to look at future employment, has called on the UK government to invest in jobs related to wind turbines, electric trains and replacing gas boilers.

Any version of a green new deal is necessarily a job-heavy economy, with a great deal of work needed to alter the infrastructure that powers our current lifestyle. The UK government’s Ten Point Plan for Green Industrial Revolution pledges 250,000 green jobs. The political question here is whether politicians and policymakers will be brave enough to resist a bounce back for aviation and invest in a longer term future for these airport towns, to avoid them suffering a decade of decline.

This is likely to see aviation jobs lost, and will require very targeted support for cities or regions reliant on airport employment. To build back better, a green recovery must seek to support these communities and provide them with new opportunities and livelihoods.The Conversation

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This blog was written by Cabot Institute for the Environment members Dr Ed Atkins, Lecturer, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol and Professor Martin Parker, Professor of Organisation Studies, University of BristolThis article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Martin Parker
Ed Atkins

Winners of the Cabot Institute for the Environment Film Prize 2021

This year the Cabot Institute team had the privelege of judging the Environment category of this year’s Bristol Science Film Festival.

We’re pleased to be able to announce the winners of this year’s Cabot Institute for the Environment Film Prize. A big congratulations to all film makers, the quality of the films this year was brilliant which made it so much harder to judge!

Runner up — Beavers: Nature’s Ecosystem Engineers by Lauren Cook

Beavers is a watercolour-illustrated stop-motion animation about beavers, their keystone impacts and role in restoring UK rivers. Watch it here.

 

Winner — Lucho Apa and the Soil by Clau Zavala

Lucho Apa, the only ‘chulengo’ (a young guanaco) in his herd, must venture through the Choapa valleys in Chile to form his own. Along the way, he will get to know northern landscapes, form solid friendships and discover that soil is not just dirt! Watch the full miniseries here.

 

Well done Clau!
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This blog was written by Amanda Woodman-Hardy, Communications and Engagement Officer at the Cabot Institute for the Environment.